As the Prime Minister arrived in Birmingham for her first annual conference as leader, senior campaigners told the Independent that MPs across the party are “alive” at suggestions she plans to scrap a promised benefit to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy to the chancellor. Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini budget. One described the combination of austerity for the poor and handouts for the rich as “electoral suicide” and confirmed Tory MPs were talking to Labor about parliamentary means to stop it. While organized plots have yet to form, expect them to begin in earnest unless Ms Truss shows signs of backing down by the time the Commons return from recess on October 11. Former Tory chancellor Kenneth Clarke told the Independent that Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng needed to “learn important lessons quickly” after a “politically inadequate” mini-budget, including £45bn of unfunded tax cuts, which it sent markets into freefall and Labor into leads. up to 33 points in the polls. Another veteran of Sir John Major’s Treasury team, Phillip Oppenheim, said Ms Truss was “probably the last Tory prime minister”. “Nothing in last week’s mini-budget shows that our new leaders have the slightest understanding of our long-term structural problems or the solutions, beyond a half-digested, two-dimensional version of Thatcherism,” Mr Oppenheim said. Meanwhile, the chairman of the influential Commons Finance Committee, Mel Stride, warned Mr Kwarteng that the delay in publishing his medium-term budget plan – and the spending watchdog’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assessment of its impact – could make millions miserable by encouraging the Bank of England to push interest rates higher. The former finance minister urged the chancellor to bring forward the publication from November 23 to allow the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to assess the City’s reaction ahead of its rate-setting meeting on November 3, at which the analysts expect an increase of up to half a percentage point. The Prime Minister and Chancellor insisted they were sticking to their timetable after meeting the OBR on Friday. However, Mr Stride told the Independent: “If the OBR’s forecast comes out before the MPC meeting and it goes down well in the markets, then there will be less uncertainty, less pressure on sterling and bond yields and that can then lead to the MPC’s decision to go with a lower, less painful rate hike than would otherwise be the case.” “It’s not ridiculous to suggest he might be gone by Christmas,” warns the backbencher (PA Wire) Backing the early publication, veteran Tory MP Sir Roger Gale told the Independent that Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng “need to move very quickly indeed because people are scared”. With around 1.6 million households on variable rate mortgages worth around £140,000 – and 300,000 fixed rate deals each quarter – a variation of just half a point in the rate can add £700 a year to the typical cost of living for a large number of voters, and much more for many of them. Sir Roger said Mrs Truss would be under “very significant pressure” until the end of the year unless she could offer some reassurance to the public about the economy. “I know what it’s like to have men and women cry because their homes are being messed with,” he said. A former minister told the Independent: “He needs to reverse Kwarteng’s scrapping of the 45p additional income tax rate and he needs to stop talking about benefit cuts because it’s electoral suicide. “Her position is precarious. There was no justification for the measures they announced, which went far beyond what had been promised in the summer. There are no organized conspiracies that I’ve heard of, but mainstream opinion across the party is angry and, unless something changes soon, people will have debates when we return to the Commons next week.” A Tory MP said some supporters were now talking about moving against Mrs Truss – including discussing what form a leadership contest could take – if her handling of the economy does not improve in the next two months. The supporter said that despite the risk of removing yet another leader after being forced out three in six years, it was “very hard to see how we’re going to bounce back” with Ms Truss in charge. Local radio stations are wooing Liz Truss for a series of interviews While current rules give a new leader a year’s grace before facing a challenge, several MPs have pointed out that the 1922 committee has the power to change the rules, as it threatened with Boris Johnson. Some suggested that any reform would have to prevent a repeat of this summer’s protracted leadership contest, which gave the final decision to the party’s 175,000 members. Talk has already begun of possibly ‘crowning’ a single candidate – as happened with Michael Howard in 2003 – to take the decision out of the hands of the members. An MP supporting Rishi Sunak said it would be “absolutely embarrassing” to have another contest so soon, but added: “Anger can be such that colleagues feel differently – the rules can always change.” Another said: “I think the 45p decision is unfounded and I can’t see it going through parliament. When the government then talks about squeezing spending – and especially welfare – it’s an extremely bad view.” Ministers refused to confirm the 10 per cent inflation boost to benefits promised by former chancellor Mr Sunak, with reports suggesting Ms Truss may seek to limit the increase in average pay to around 6 per cent. Political Economy of Britain Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved Political Economy of Britain Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved Political Economy of Britain Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved Political Economy of Britain Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved Political Economy of Britain Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved Political Economy of Britain Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved The MP said the “politically toxic” move would only add around £6bn towards a black hole of up to £60-70bn likely to be revealed in the OBR report but would be considered – along with controversial cuts to public spending services – as “perfectly acceptable” to many Tories. “I think he’s in huge danger,” the backbencher said. “It’s not ridiculous to suggest he might be gone by Christmas. This is possible. Everything points to her having to unravel some of these policies, but the question is whether she’s trying to be an immovable object when this overwhelming force hits.” Ms Truss admitted on Saturday that there had been “disruption” to the UK economy as a result of the micro-budget. But he showed no sign of preparing a climbdown, insisting he had “acted decisively” and would keep an “iron grip” on the country’s finances. Close Cabinet ally Simon Clarke hinted strongly at spending cuts, saying the UK’s “extremely large” state needed to be “fully aligned with a lower tax economy”. And Mr Kwarteng said he had “no choice” but to announce measures which he acknowledged were “not universally popular”. Signaling future cuts, he insisted he would produce a “credible plan” to get public finances back on track with a “commitment to spending discipline”. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng admitted the measures announced in the mini-budget were not “universally popular” (PA) Former leadership challenger Jeremy Hunt said it was “premature” to judge Mrs Truss. “She won the election fair and square and we have to give her time,” he told GB News. “I think in a couple of months the markets will have calmed down, we will have shown the country as Conservatives how we are going to balance the books … And I think it will be time to make judgments.” Truss backer Alexander Stafford, whose Rother Valley seat is among the 2019 Red Wall constituencies seen as most vulnerable to a Labor opposition, insisted the conference was a “huge opportunity” for the prime minister. “I think the conference will be a great opportunity for Liz to leave her mark on the nation and really show the long-term positive changes she will make,” he told the Independent.
