According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), around one in 70 people in the community in England – around 766,500 people – had Covid in the week ending September 14, up from 705,800 people or one in 75 in the week. before. It is the first time since the end of July that there has been an increase in England. There was also a rise in Wales, although infection levels fell slightly in Northern Ireland and Scotland in the most recent week, after the latter had risen the previous week. A rise in cases has also been seen in UK data collected by the Zoe health study, while the latest NHS figures show a 17% rise in the number of Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England – up from 3,434 in the week ending 12 September to 4,015 in the week ending September 19 – with larger percentage increases in some areas. If Covid takes off again, the prospects are for a bumpy ride. “With cases already on the rise, it looks like we’re in for a bad October and it’s likely to be worse than the last wave,” said Zoe scientific co-founder Professor Tim Spector. A wave of Covid this fall was expected. Declining immunity from vaccinations and previous infections, increased indoor mingling, reduced testing, children returning to school and students to university, and other behavioral changes can all increase infection rates. There are also new variations. While Omicron has dominated the UK since last winter, it has many ‘daughter’ forms. The minor variant BA.5 is the most common, but experts have their eyes on others, including BA4.6, BF.7, BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1. As Dr Thomas Peacock, from Imperial College London, points out, recent data suggests the latter two account for less than 0.5% of Covid genetic sequences in the UK – but they are growing fast. “It’s entirely possible that an autumn/winter surge will be driven by a mix of variations,” Peacock said. Professor Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, said that BA.2.75.2 and BQ1.1 have mutations in the spike protein that help them partially escape BA.5-induced immunity. “Combined with the fact that Covid hospitalizations are already starting to rise again in the UK and that the full impact of these variations is still not being felt, I would say this is not such great news,” he said. What is not known is the impact these variants may have on disease severity, although Peacock noted that there is currently no evidence that they cause worse disease. And Covid-related deaths remain low. Wenseleers said: “Most scientists believe that our high population immunity will cause the death rate from infection to continue to decline. But any new wave of infection will naturally add to the pandemic’s toll.” But deaths are not the only concern. Peacock said: “Even a small wave will put a massive strain on health services, particularly if combined with other respiratory viruses that are coming back this winter”, such as flu. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Experts agree that vaccines are vital to the fight against Covid. “I can only recommend to everyone who is offered a souvenir to go and get it: this is the best way to protect yourself from serious illness and limit the impact of any new wave,” Wenseleers said. Dr Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist from the University of Bern and the University of Geneva, said studies suggest that the new dual-variant Covid booster vaccines available in the UK and other countries may increase protection against Covid, while Dr David Strain, of the University of Exeter’s medical school, said the vaccination could also reduce the chance of long-term Covid. But there are concerns about absorption. “We’re getting a whole host of vaccine fatigue — people are sick of being told to go get their shot,” Strain said. A new wave of Covid also creates the potential to disrupt education, transport, deliveries and other infrastructure, Hodcroft said, raising the question of whether further measures such as blanket or home working may also be needed. “Overall, I think right now the most important thing is to look carefully at our fall plans and make sure we have a plan,” he said.
