The stark warning comes as world leaders begin to gather for the Cop27 UN climate summit, which opens on Sunday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, but which even the hosts admit will be the most difficult in at least a decade. Cop27 is taking place amid the worst geopolitical tensions in years, over the war in Ukraine, a spiraling global cost-of-living crisis and deepening economic gloom. But the gap must be bridged if humanity is to have any hope of avoiding the worst disasters of climate collapse, Guterres said. “There is no way we can avoid a catastrophic situation, if both [the developed and developing world] they are not in a position to create a historic pact,” he told the Guardian in an interview on the eve of the summit. “Because at today’s level, we’re doomed.” Developed countries have failed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough and have failed to provide the money needed for poor nations to deal with the resulting extreme weather. The stark climate disparity between the rich world, which is responsible for most emissions, and the poor, which bear the brunt of the impacts, is now the biggest issue in the talks, according to Guterres. “Current policies [on the climate] it will be absolutely devastating,” he said. “And the truth is that we will not be able to change this situation unless a pact is put in place between developed countries and emerging economies.” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. Photo: David Dee Delgado/Reuters Guterres has drawn criticism from some quarters for his increasingly strident rhetoric on the climate crisis, warning of “collective suicide”, “carnage” to come and a “code red” for humanity. But he insisted he would refuse to tone down his apocalyptic language as the rapidly accelerating climate emergency was now so dire. “For the simple reason that we are approaching tipping points, and tipping points will happen [climate breakdown] irreversible,” he said. “This damage would not allow us to recover and limit temperature increases. And as we approach these turning points, we need to increase the urgency, we need to increase the ambition, and we need to rebuild trust, especially trust between North and South.” “We are approaching tipping points that will create irreversible impacts, some of which are hard to even imagine,” he warned. He also called on the US and China to rebuild their fractured relationship, which has sunk to new lows this year but which Guterres said was “critical” to climate action. “It must be restored because without these two countries working together, it will be absolutely impossible to reverse the current trends,” he said. Guterres, along with the Egyptian government, will convene world leaders at the start of the Cop27 summit to try to salvage an unwieldy set of climate negotiations. This year, geopolitical relations have been rocked by the war in Ukraine, along with skyrocketing fossil fuel prices and food price rises that have created a cost-of-living crisis around the world, as well as government failures – including the UK’s – to follow through on promises made last year at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow. The pact Guterres has in mind would require major economies to do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions and provide poor countries with a financial lifeline. This was needed to restore “trust”, he said. Lack of confidence in climate negotiations means lack of money. Rich countries were to provide at least $100 billion a year until 2020 to help poor countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the effects of the climate crisis. But the target has been missed repeatedly and will be missed again this year, while poor countries are already suffering climate catastrophe, including record floods in Pakistan and record drought in Africa. A “historic compact” between rich and poor would include clear new commitments on finance and for rich countries and emerging economies to step up their emissions reduction targets, Guterres said. It would also require progress on the vexed issue of “loss and damage”, which is likely to be a flashpoint at Cop27. Losses and damages refer to the most devastating effects of extreme weather events, which are impossible to adapt to, and poor countries want a financing mechanism that would allow rescue and rehabilitation of countries whose physical and social infrastructure has been destroyed by disaster climate. “The issue of loss and damage has been postponed, postponed and postponed,” Guterres said. “We must ensure that there is accountability and that there is effective support in the countries suffering the most dramatic levels of loss and damage.” Rich countries managed to raise $16 trillion to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, he pointed out. But for poor countries, there wasn’t even debt relief to help them with the compounding effects of Covid, cost-of-living increases, climate and a strong dollar, which made their repayments more expensive. “There is a sense of disappointment [in the developing world] this is real and deserves a response,” he said. In recent months he has called for a windfall tax on oil and gas companies enjoying themselves, a call he will repeat in Sharm el-Sheikh. At last year’s summit in Glasgow, countries agreed to focus on limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but recent UN reports have shown that current policies would increase temperatures by around 2 .5 degrees Celsius. Guterres said there was only a small chance the target would be held. “We still have one chance, but we’re losing it fast,” he said. “I would say 1.5 C is in intensive care and the machines are shaking. So either we act immediately and in a very strong way, or it’s gone and probably gone forever.”
