Russian military officials discussed how and under what conditions Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment described to CNN by multiple sources who have read it.
The assessment, compiled by the National Intelligence Council, is not a product of high confidence and is not raw intelligence but rather analysis, multiple people who have read it told CNN. For this reason, some officials believe that the conversations reflected in the document may have been taken out of context and do not necessarily indicate that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon.
The U.S. has yet to see signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to take the drastic step of using one, officials said, and Putin is not believed to have been involved in the discussions described in the NIC product.
But others within the administration who have seen the document have reacted with concern because it provides a rare window into talks between senior Russian generals and reveals their growing frustration with Russia’s losses on the battlefield in Ukraine. That frustration could turn to desperation, some officials fear. There are also questions about whether Russia’s self-declared annexation of eastern Ukraine earlier this year means Russia is willing to take more extreme measures to protect that region.
The US is also monitoring Russia’s actions around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, which Ukrainian forces are trying to retake from Russian forces in a counteroffensive. In recent weeks, Russian officials have ordered the evacuation of the city, and the US worries that if Ukraine drives the Russians to a humiliating defeat, it could be the trigger for Putin to resort to tactical nukes. It’s one of the scenarios envisioned by the intelligence assessment, though officials stressed that Kherson is not the sole focus of the product.
The New York Times first reported the intelligence assessment. But internal disagreements about the quality of the intelligence and how to interpret it have not been reported before.
Tactical nuclear weapons are sometimes described as “small nukes” because they are usually smaller nuclear warheads intended for use in a limited strike on a battlefield. They have explosive yields of 10 to 100 kilotons of dynamite, while “strategic” nuclear weapons have an explosive yield of 500 to 800 kilotons and are designed to destroy entire cities. But conventional nuclear weapons can still be unimaginably deadly: the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan in 1945 were about 15 to 21 kilotons, respectively.
CNN previously reported that U.S. officials believe the likelihood of Putin using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine is perhaps the highest since Russia invaded in February — but still not likely.
Any use of nuclear weapons would cause international outrage and put pressure on the US and NATO to retaliate.
“I have no comment on the specifics of this report,” National Security Council official John Kirby said in a statement. “We have been clear from the beginning that Russia’s comments about the possible use of nuclear weapons are deeply troubling and we take them seriously. We continue to monitor it as best we can and see no indication that Russia is preparing for such use.”
The assessment is not a raw intelligence product and the sources for it are not strong, sources told CNN. But the internal turmoil over how to interpret the assessment reflects the broader difficulty the US has had in determining with confidence whether Putin would actually go as far as using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Only Putin can know what’s in his head, officials said.
Concerns escalated after Putin warned in a speech in September that “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the weapons systems at our disposal. This is not a bluff.”
And last week, Russian officials began claiming that Ukraine was preparing to use a “dirty bomb” — a claim the US worried was just a pretext for Russia to use one of its own.
“The reason this particular allegation causes us some concern is because Russia has a history of projection, that is, of accusing others of doing something that they themselves have done or are thinking of doing,” Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken said. Bloomberg event last week. Blinken noted that the US had “communicated directly and very clearly with the Russians, with President Putin about the consequences” of using a nuclear weapon.
