Minyaylo, 37, is perhaps best known in Russia for his efforts to get non-Kremlin candidates on the ballot for Moscow’s 2019 municipal elections. In the protests that followed, he was charged with inciting riots and spent almost three months in prison. “The vertical of power is shaking,” Mignyello told CBC News via video interview from his home in Moscow, where he has remained since Putin’s February 25 invasion of Ukraine, with all the dangers that entails. Alexey Minyaylo, 37, continues to live in Moscow, despite his opposition to Putin’s war in Ukraine. (Alexey Minyailo) Despite the imprisonment of other anti-war activists, Minyaylo is still active. One of his plans is the campaign to help Ukrainians forcibly expelled from occupied Russian territories to return to their homes.
Laying the foundations for a more democratic Russia
He is also engaged in what he calls a “grassroots campaign” to lay the groundwork for a more democratic Russia after Putin — who turns 70 today — is gone. “Russians don’t think anything can change. So if we create some vision for the future, it can work,” Minyaylo said. He says his team – which he won’t identify for security reasons – will soon release a new vision of a post-Putin Russia that he hopes ordinary Russians will connect with. He hopes it will also include a commitment by Western nations to ease sanctions and finally give Russians a chance to return to normal life. With the Russian military in disarray in Ukraine and a mass mobilization push to recruit hundreds of thousands of Russian men fueling unrest across the sprawling country, Minyaylo believes the conditions are ripe for Putin’s demise. WATCHES | Ukraine retakes key territories from Russia:
Ukraine makes rapid gains in Russian annexed territories
Ukrainian troops are advancing rapidly not only in the east of the country, but also in the south, seizing territory that only days ago Russia unilaterally claimed as its own through a series of annexations. “Putin is very good at holding on to power, so I don’t think anything can be done just with people rebelling,” he said. “The only feasible way, in my opinion, is for some part of the establishment to get Putin off the street.” Other longtime Russia watchers agree with his assessment. “Putin’s position is definitely weakening, and the more the situation escalates, the faster the process,” said Abbas Galiamov, a former Putin speechwriter and now a political analyst. “The elites are at least starting to act and see that he has lost control of the situation,” said Gallyamov, who spoke to CBC News from his home in Israel, where he has lived since 2018.
The weakening of Putin
Some of the most striking signs of Putin’s weakening grip on the country’s power machinery have been unprecedented and stinging attacks on the country’s military leadership for the conduct of the war. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny appears on a screen via a video link from the IK-2 correctional penal colony in Pokrov during a court hearing to consider an appeal against his prison sentence in Moscow, Russia, May 24, 2022. ( (Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters) One of the most significant volleys was fired by Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen warlord. “Yesterday, it was the parade in Izium,” he wrote on Meduza, an independent news site, referring to the liberated Ukrainian city. “Today is the Ukrainian flag in Lyman — and what about tomorrow? Everything would be fine if it wasn’t so bad.” . WATCHES | Ukrainian forces recaptured the city of Liman:
Ukrainian forces recapture the key eastern city of Liman from the Russians
Ukrainian forces recaptured the eastern city of Liman just a day after Russia annexed the region. A key logistics and supply hub, the capture of the city is seen as a possible step towards recapturing all of Donbas. Kadyrov, who commands his own militia, is believed to have ambitions beyond his republic in the South Caucasus. His remarks were quickly reinforced by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, a military contractor company. The private army is the largest in Russia and has fought with Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region. “Beautiful, Ramzan, keep it up,” she wrote on social media in response to Kadyrov’s criticism. Both men are even more hardline than Putin. It is unlikely that countries in the West or Ukraine will welcome either as an improvement on the current leadership. FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attend a Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, Russia, July 31, 2022. (Alexei Danichev/Pool via Reuters) On the other side of the political spectrum is anti-corruption crusader Alexei Navalny. Jailed by Russian authorities after a failed assassination attempt by what investigators have identified as agents of Russia’s secret police, Navalny has announced plans to resurrect his regional political network to help organize those opposed to the mobilization.
Who could replace Putin?
This week, Navalny wrote a lengthy essay in the Washington Post about how a future democratic Russia could be both prosperous and no longer a threat to its neighbors. Navalny, who has often been held in solitary confinement since his January 2021 arrest, has continued to issue public statements through his lawyers and most of his core leadership team works outside Russia. “He has moral capital [from being in jail] and he has many ideological followers who are ready to go to work,” said Minyaylo, the activist. Russian opposition leader and Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny and activist Alexey Menyaylo attend a rally to demand the release of jailed protesters, who were arrested during opposition protests for fair elections, in Moscow, Russia, on September 29 2019. Menyailo is a protester, who was released from pre-trial detention. (Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters) On the other hand, the Kremlin’s relentless propaganda against him has had the effect of undermining public confidence in Russia’s liberal opposition — and for any current MP to even mention Navalny’s name, let alone acknowledge that he is in talks with members of of his organization, it would be political suicide. Still, Gallyamov says it’s too early to count anyone out, as a potential power vacuum at the top of Russia’s leadership will create unforeseen opportunities for whoever manages to take the initiative. “It’s a paradox, revolutionaries don’t create revolutions so much as they reap their benefits. Revolutions mostly happen by themselves because of the mistakes the government makes,” he said. “[Revolutionaries] raise flags under which revolutions take place — and in that sense, what Navalny’s team is doing is absolutely right.” Chechen Republic leader Ramzan Kadyrov (center) attends a Victory Day military parade in the Chechen capital of Grozny, Russia, May 9, 2022. (Chingis Kondarov/Reuters) Galiamov says he believes the first move against Putin will come from elites urging him to choose a successor, a move the Russian president has so far resisted. “At a certain point, this may look like salvation for Putin. With the war in Ukraine lost, the discontent of the masses and the paralysis of the state apparatus, the proposal to find a successor will not look like an act of disloyalty to him anymore.” he said.
Perhaps a distant fantasy
Other analysts believe a Russia without Putin remains a distant fantasy, especially for those in Ukraine and the West who want him gone — or dead. “I think it’s too early to say that the Putin regime is in danger of seeing the leader go,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. While Gabuev says there may be cracks in the solidarity of Russia’s elites, they currently pose no serious threat to Putin’s 22-year rule. People attend a rally to demand the release of jailed protesters, who were arrested during opposition protests for fair elections, in Moscow, Russia, September 29, 2019. (Tatyana Makeyeva/Reuters) “We’ve seen tremendous pressure [authoritarian] regimes and yet they find ways to support the leaders,” Gabuev said from Istanbul, noting that dictatorial rulers in Belarus, Venezuela and Iran have resisted mass protests and defections from the ruling class and sustained themselves using violence and intimidation. Even among Russian opposition figures who want Putin gone, there is a reluctance to attach a timetable for when things might turn around. “It’s important, I think, not to set yourself any timelines, because if you set them and then nothing happens, you will inevitably be disappointed,” said Vladimir Milov, one of Russia’s most prominent anti-Putin crusaders. LISTEN | Front burner on the car bomb that killed a pro-Russian commentator, August 26: Front Burner21:59 Car bomb effect in a Russia at war On Saturday, a car bomb killed pro-war Russian commentator Daria Dugina on the outskirts of Moscow. Dugina was the daughter of the ultra-nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin, whose influence on Russian President Vladimir Putin is widely debated – leading to speculation that the bomb was intended for Dugin himself. Today on Front Burner, The Guardian’s Moscow correspondent Andrew Roth explains who Dugin is, the competing theories about who was responsible for the car explosion and what impact the attack could have on how it is carried out the war in Ukraine. A former deputy energy minister in 2002, the late Milov, has been linked to Navalny’s efforts to challenge Putin for the presidency. Instead, he argues that the focus should be on putting as much pressure as possible on Putin and his government. “His possible failure in Ukraine, more sanctions against him, a shift in public opinion so that more Russians turn away from him and speak out against him. All of these will inevitably lead to his downfall…
