Russia’s decision to pull out of a deal guaranteeing the safe passage of ships carrying vital grain exports from Ukraine has sparked “serious concerns” about global food supplies at a time when the world is already facing a growing hunger crisis.
Global aid agencies, the European Union, NATO and the United Nations have pleaded with Moscow to reverse its decision, warning that any reduction in exports from Ukraine could have potentially deadly consequences.
The UN and Turkey have been trying to salvage the deal they both helped broker in July to keep ships moving through the Black Sea. But Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted on Tuesday that Moscow would only consider resurrecting it after a “thorough investigation” into drone attacks on the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
Russia blamed Ukraine for the attacks and said it was the reason for its decision to suspend the grain deal. Ukraine has not confirmed that its forces attacked the city, and the extent of damage to Russian naval vessels was unclear.
Here’s what we know so far.
The agreement between Russia and Ukraine was made in July with the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey.
It put in place a procedure that guarantees the safety of ships carrying Ukrainian grain, fertilizer and other food through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. Under the agreement, all ships coming to and from Ukrainian ports were inspected and monitored by international teams consisting of officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Russia was suspending indefinitely – though “not ending” – its participation in the vital deal.
The remaining parties said they would continue with the program and resume inspections without Russia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that Ankara was determined to try to keep the initiative alive. “A third of the world’s wheat is produced by Russia and Ukraine. You are the closest witnesses of our efforts to deliver this wheat to the countries facing the threat of hunger,” Erdogan said at an event in Istanbul.
However, the Kremlin warned against continuing the deal without it. Asked whether it would be possible to maintain grain shipments without Russia’s involvement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that without Russia guaranteeing the safety of navigation, “such an agreement is hardly possible.”
Despite Russia’s decision to pull out of the deal, Kyiv said 12 ships had been able to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports since Monday morning and two more departed on Tuesday.
Among them was the Ikaria Angel, a ship chartered by the World Food Program and loaded with 30,000 metric tons of wheat bound for the Horn of Africa, which is currently experiencing a major food crisis.
The ship movements on Monday and Tuesday suggest that while Russia has said it is pulling out of the deal, it has stopped short – so far – of re-imposing a full blockade on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
However, the UN, Turkey and Ukraine said on Tuesday that they had agreed not to plan any ship movements on Wednesday. This came after the Kremlin warned on Monday that without Russia guaranteeing the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, the deal would become “much more dangerous, dangerous and unguaranteed”.
Ukraine plays a key role in the global food market. According to the UN, Ukraine normally supplies the world with about 45 million tons of grain each year. It ranks among the top five global exporters of barley, corn and wheat. It is also by far the largest exporter of sunflower oil, accounting for 46% of global exports.
In normal times, Ukraine would export about three-quarters of the grain it produces. About 90% of these exports were previously shipped by sea from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, according to European Commission data.
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in late February, it effectively imposed a blockade on ships leaving Ukrainian ports. The impact of the war on world food markets was imminent and extremely painful, especially since Ukraine is a major supplier of grain to the World Food Programme. The Food and Agriculture Organization, a UN body, said up to 47 million people could be pushed into “acute food insecurity” because of the war.
The Black Sea Agreement provided much needed relief. The UN estimates that the reduction in staple food prices as a result of the agreement has indirectly prevented about 100 million people from falling into extreme poverty.
He added that as of Monday, more than 9.5 million metric tons of food had been exported under the agreement since it came into force in the summer.
Shashwat Saraf, East Africa Emergencies Director at the International Rescue Committee, said the collapse of the deal would “hit those on the brink of starvation the hardest”.
“The renewed blockade raises serious concerns about the growing global hunger crisis, especially in East Africa where over 20 million people are experiencing hunger or in places like Yemen which relies on Russia and Ukraine for almost half of its wheat imports and where over 19 millions of people need food aid,” he said.
“Any attempt to undermine the agreement is an attack on hungry families around the world whose lives and livelihoods depend on this initiative,” USAID Administrator Samantha Power said Sunday.
On Friday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on all sides to renew the grain deal, saying: “If food and fertilizer do not reach world markets now, farmers will not have fertilizer at the right time and in a price they can afford. as the planting season begins, endangering crops in all regions of the world in 2023 and 2024, with dramatic effects on food production and food prices worldwide. The current crisis of affordability will turn into a crisis of availability.”
According to the original agreement, the deal was to run for at least 120 days and was to be renewed in mid-November.
On Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Russia was withdrawing from the deal because of drone attacks on Sevastopol, a port city in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Russia annexed in 2014. The annexation is considered illegal by the Ukrainian government and not recognized in the West.
Russia said its air defense systems “repelled drone attacks” on the city on Saturday. He claimed that one of the drones could have been launched from a civilian ship carrying grain. CNN cannot independently verify the Russia report.
Ukraine has not commented on the attacks.
“Vessel movement along the security corridor is not possible, as the Ukrainian leadership and command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine use it to conduct military operations against the Russian Federation,” the ministry said in a statement.
Moscow blamed Ukraine for the attacks, but also accused the UK of helping Kyiv plan them. Britain in turn accused Moscow of “spreading false claims on an epic scale”. Andrii Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, accused Russia of staging “fictitious terrorist attacks” at its facilities in Crimea and accused Moscow of “blackmail”.
Russia had long threatened to pull out of the deal after previously complaining that the deal had not delivered the promised benefits for Russian grain and fertilizer exports. As part of the deal, the UN and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at protecting Russian exports of fertilizers and other agricultural products from the effects of Western sanctions.
However, Russia claimed last week that exports were still being hampered. While the EU and US have agreed to exempt these exports from their embargoes, sanctions on financial institutions and bans on ships linked to Russia mean that Russia’s ability to export these products is limited.
Russian President Vladimir Putin last week threatened to curb Ukraine’s exports to Europe, falsely claiming that developing countries are not getting their fair share of grain.
In a statement to CNN, the UN said that under the Black Sea Grains Initiative, about 30% of “grains and other food” has reached low- and low- and middle-income countries.
Wheat and corn prices on global commodity markets rose on Monday. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 5.5% on Monday to $8.74 a bushel. Corn futures rose 2.3% to $6.96 a bushel. Palm oil futures in Malaysia also rose, Reuters reported, on fears of a possible impact on Ukrainian sunflower oil exports.
