Separatists and Moscow-backed officials announced earlier this week that votes would be held from Friday to Tuesday in four provinces: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia. They claim to have broad public support for joining Russia. The referendums coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing the mobilization of some 300,000 reservists and threatening nuclear retaliation for any attacks on Russian soil, amid setbacks on the battlefield against a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Here’s a look at what the referendums will entail and their potential impact:
Why are referendums held?
The separatists who have controlled large parts of the separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine’s Donbass since 2014 have long pushed for integration with Russia and have shown little tolerance for dissent. Earlier in the summer, when the Kremlin hoped for a quick takeover of the entire Donbass region, local officials talked of holding referendums in September, but amid the slow pace of Russia’s offensive in the east, officials in Moscow talked of delaying the vote until In November . The Kremlin’s plans changed again after a lightning Ukrainian counterattack this month. Vladimir Vysotsky, head of the central election commission of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, visits a polling station on Thursday. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters) Experts see the referendums, which will be held with just days’ notice, as a Russian propaganda tool to shore up public support at a time when its troops are struggling to hold ground in Ukraine. “[Russia] couldn’t care less that we say their referendums are a scam… The [Russian] the population still largely confesses what is happening. That could change with this draft,” says Professor Robert Austin of the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. Annexing these areas would also give Russia the opportunity to claim self-defense and respond forcefully against any Ukrainian counterattack there. Earlier this week, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian soil. “They will say [it’s self-defence]but no one in the world will believe that,” said Borys Wrzesnewskyj, a former Canadian Liberal MP who heads the Ukraine World Congress Human Rights Committee.
Will the votes be legal?
The referendums are illegal under both international and Ukrainian law, including a violation of the United Nations Charter. “It is a means of acquiring territory by force, and that is illegal,” said Professor Marc Weller, who holds the chair of International Law and International Constitutional Studies at the University of Cambridge in the UK. Observers expect the outcome of the votes to be predetermined by the Kremlin, with officials expected to announce that voters in every region overwhelmingly support joining Russia. “The people on the ground are given their orders to deliver a certain percentage… Whether it’s 97 percent or 95 percent, [Putin] it will certainly tell whoever implements the referendum what result they are looking for,” Austin said. A military vehicle drives along a road under a billboard that reads “With Russia forever, September 27,” in Luhansk, Ukraine, on Thursday. It is one of four regions that will hold referendums on joining Russia. (The Associated Press) Referendums will be held without independent observers and there is a lack of transparency about who will vote and under what conditions. Canada’s former chief electoral officer Jean-Pierre Kingsley, who has previously led international election observer missions in Iraq, Haiti and other countries, said the referendum process lacked several key elements: an independent authority, rules of conduct and their enforcement. and sufficient time and information for voters to understand what the referendums are about. “I wouldn’t be looking for any of those things in the upcoming referendums, just like I didn’t look for Crimea,” Kingsley said, referring to a snap vote in 2014 in Ukraine’s Crimea region on whether to join Russia. Wrzesnewskyj described the vote as “literally a referendum under the gun.” Members of the Donetsk electoral commission gather at a polling station on Thursday. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters) “In a place that’s been bombed, bombed, where your neighbors have been killed, disappeared, tortured, and a so-called Russian occupation election official shows up with a soldier with a Kalashnikov and tells you to fill out a ballot and vote. how would you vote You would vote to save your life.” People from these regions who were displaced, fighting on the front lines or forcibly transferred to Russian territory are unlikely to be involved in the vote.
Will Russia face consequences for referendums?
Many Western leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and US President Joe Biden, denounced the referendums as a fraud and said their countries would not recognize the results. But it is unclear what further action they might take against Russia, given the sheer volume of sanctions already in place since the war began in February. Canada denounces Russia’s planned “referendums” in the occupied territories of Ukraine. We will never recognize them. This is a flagrant violation of international law. It is a further escalation of the war. And it’s unacceptable. —@JustinTrudeau Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on the United Nations to remove Russia’s right of veto in the UN Security Council. In 2014, Russia was kicked out of the G8 and sanctioned by several countries after sending troops to Crimea and holding a referendum in which officials claimed 97 percent of voters supported joining Russia. Moscow used that vote as justification for annexing the Black Sea peninsula, in a move that was not recognized by most of the world. The vote was held under close watch by Russian troops shortly after they had captured the region.
What is the current situation in the polling areas?
Luhansk and Donetsk declared independence from Ukraine weeks after Crimea was annexed, sparking eight years of conflict that eventually led Putin to launch an invasion in February, ostensibly to protect their residents. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech in the Russian city of Veliky Novgorod on Wednesday. Earlier this week, he announced the mobilization of reserves to support Russia’s offensive against Ukraine. (Ilya Pitalev/Sputnik/Reuters) Since then, Russian troops and local separatist forces have taken control of almost all of the Luhansk region, but only about 60 percent of Donetsk. In the southern regions where referendums will be held, anti-Russian sentiment is strong. Hundreds of pro-Kiev activists have been arrested, with many claiming torture. Others were forcibly expelled and tens of thousands fled.
How does this relate to Putin’s mobilization, the nuclear threats?
A day after the referendums were announced, Putin ordered a partial mobilization of some 300,000 reservists to bolster his forces in Ukraine and also said he was prepared to use nuclear weapons to repel any attacks on Russian soil. Observers noted that Putin’s order is broad enough to allow the military to increase the numbers further if necessary. Some reports indicate that the Kremlin’s goal is to muster a million men. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council under Putin, reinforced the president’s threat on Thursday, saying that after absorbing the four Ukrainian regions, Moscow could use “any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons’ to defend them.
