Soldiers in Ukraine’s Karlson unit fire a Grad missile at a Russian position in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region on October 27. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post) Comment on this story Comment KHERSON REGION, Ukraine — Here in the muddy coastal region of Kherson, which sits like a crumpled hat on the Russian-held Crimean peninsula, soldiers are preparing for what could become the biggest battle of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, and perhaps the unique The best test of whether Moscow will end up gaining any significant ground from its invasion or will be forced to retreat empty-handed. Ukrainian officials have indicated that an attack on the city of Kherson – the only regional capital Russia has managed to capture since its invasion began on February 24 – could be imminent. President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainians to “wait for good news” from the region, and another top official recently said he expected to retake the city by the end of the year. The territory recovered from Ukraine through counterattacks Four illegals annexed areas where Putin said martial law Area held by supported by Russia separatists since 2014 Annexed from Russia in 2014 Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project, Post reporting Territory reclaimed from Ukraine through counterattacks Four illegally attached areas where Putin declared martial law Attached by Russia in 2014 Area held by supported by Russia separatists since 2014 Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project, Post reporting Four illegals annexed areas where Putin said martial law Schismatic- controlled area since then 2014 Territory reclaimed from Ukraine through counterattacks Attached by Russia in 2014 Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project, Post reporting Territory reclaimed from Ukraine through counterattacks Four illegals annexed areas where Putin said martial law Area held by supported by Russia separatists since 2014 Attached by Russia in 2014 Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project Russia, however, has shown no sign that it is willing to give up the city or the wider Kherson region, which is of huge strategic and political importance to the Kremlin. The Ukrainian armed forces said last week that Russia had moved an additional 1,000 troops to the area around the city of Kherson, which had a pre-war population of around 300,000. However, there were conflicting reports on Thursday about the Russian activity. Videos on social media appeared to show some Russian checkpoints abandoned and the Russian flag no longer flying over the regional administration building. Western officials said Russian forces appeared ready to retreat to the east bank of the Dnieper River. However, a senior Ukrainian official told local media that the lowered flag could be a ploy to lure his country’s troops into the city, where they could be attacked by Russian soldiers disguised as civilians. Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Moscow-backed regional government, said on Thursday that there was “heavy fighting” on the front lines but the situation remained “under control”. One day last week, here in the region, a Ukrainian missile team worked quickly, with a mud-splattered truck running to the edge of a contested town to deploy a reconnaissance drone and another hanging back to take aim. With a chest rattle, three Soviet-era Grad rockets tore through the back of the vehicle and shot up into the sky. The target was a Russian vehicle repair depot near the town of Dudchany. It was difficult to determine the damage from the strike last week — the second in three days. Ukrainian soldiers, from a volunteer unit called Karlson, had been in the area for several weeks. What they hoped would be a quick march to the occupied city of Kherson has been delayed by Russian fortifications and another adversary: the wild autumn mud. “The Russians have very good, well-prepared positions in this area, so it’s difficult to push them back,” said Karlson’s commander, who uses the call sign Playboy. “For now, they’re staying put.” “Even if you shoot accurately with artillery, you might kill some Russian soldiers, but others just go back to those positions,” Playboy said. “To move forward we need a lot of tanks, [armored personnel carriers] and human resources”. Amid indications in late summer that Ukraine was planning a major counteroffensive in Kherson, Russia moved military units south, helping to speed up another Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region in the northeast. But Ukraine’s push south was slow and took heavy casualties. Efforts to liberate towns in Kherson have slowed further in recent days as autumn rains have already made the ground muddy. And Russian defenses do not appear to be collapsing as they did when Ukrainian forces roared through Kharkiv in September. The Kherson region is the last critical element of the “land bridge” from mainland Russia to Crimea that Putin has desired since Moscow invaded and illegally annexed the peninsula in 2014. And the inability to reach Crimea by road has been the main reason why Putin spent 4 billion dollars to build the Crimean bridge across the Kerch Strait. The territory recovered from Ukraine through counterattacks Nuclear power plant in Enerhodar Russia is currently in control this road it creates a “land bridge” to Crimea. Annexed by Russia in 2014 Completed in 2018, the The Crimean bridge was the only link Russia had to Crimea. An explosion destroyed the bridge on October 8. Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project Territory reclaimed from Ukraine through counterattacks Nuclear power plant in Enerhodar Russia is currently in control this road it creates a “land bridge” to Crimea. Annexed by Russia in 2014 Completed in 2018, the Crimean bridge was the only link Russia had to Crimea. Explosion damaged the bridge on October 8. Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project Territory reclaimed from Ukraine through counterattacks Russian control of this road creates a “land bridge” to the Crimea. Annexed by Russia in 2014 Completed in 2018, the Crimean bridge was the only link Russia had to Crimea. Explosion damaged the bridge on October 8. Control areas from 1 November Sources: Institute for the Study of War In February, when Putin ordered a full-scale invasion, Russian forces in Crimea invaded southern Ukraine through Kherson. Now the city remains the only major stronghold of Moscow on the west side of the Dnieper River. If it falls, Ukrainian forces could advance, possibly enclosing Russian forces. In early October, Ukrainian troops were advancing on the city of Kherson from the north and west. Officials stationed in Russia say they have evacuated up to 70,000 civilians and administrative offices on the eastern side of the Dnieper in anticipation of an expected Ukrainian attack. But instead of abandoning the city, the Russians seem to be strengthening their positions and preparing for the big battle ahead, although no one knows if it will happen before or after winter. As the showdown approaches, conditions in the city of Kherson continue to deteriorate. People who have fled the regional capital say communication lines have been cut. Even the Russian SIM cards that many Kherson residents started using in their mobile phones after the Russian invasion in early March often no longer work. “It was not possible to survive under the conditions of the occupation,” said Tetiana Kartanovich, 51, a teacher who fled the city of Kherson a month ago and is now in Kyiv. At first, the occupation was tactical, Kartanovich said. There were few checkpoints and the Russian soldiers were quite professional. But over time, the Russians began to “terrorize” people, searching their cars and forcing men, boys and, occasionally, women to strip so they could be checked for tattoos indicating sympathy for the Ukrainian military. Soon, Kartanovic began to see soldiers dragging people off public transportation and taking them away, he said. Her husband and twin 17-year-old sons crossed to the east side of the river in the hope there would be less harassment, she said. Instead, Russians broke into the house where they were staying and forced everyone to the ground at gunpoint. They beat her husband until his ribs were broken and put a gun to the head of one of the twins while they searched the house, Kartanovich said. Her husband was held for two days before being released. Her story, which could…
