If the planet warms by 2.5 degrees Celsius – roughly as estimated – more than a tenth of Egypt’s coral cover would disappear, unable to cope with warmer, more carbon-laden seas. And so nearly 40% of that income comes from the reef, the global Ocean Panel initiative has predicted. The coral reef simply cannot adapt to climate catastrophe, and neither can the thousands of people who rely on it for food and work. Image: Fryeria rueppellii in the Red Sea, Egypt. Image: Thomas Aichinger/VWPics via AP Meanwhile, as sea levels on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coast creep higher, they are hitting cities like Alexandria and salt is poisoning the soil in the fertile Nile Delta. “A lot of people are losing their livelihoods there. It’s impacting agriculture. It’s impacting fisheries and it’s impacting infrastructure,” says Ambassador Mohamed Nasr, Egypt’s chief climate negotiator. Such losses and damages that exceed the limits of human adaptation entail enormous economic and social costs. The compensation issue has long haunted the UN climate talks, but this year furious developing nations hope it will take center stage at the upcoming COP27 UN climate talks in Egypt. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called the issue a “touchstone” of how seriously governments are dealing with the rising climate toll on the most vulnerable countries. Developing countries say there can be no success at COP27 without new and additional cash. Devastating floods in Pakistan this summer have reignited the debate over who should pay for climate disasters. The floods not only killed 1,700 people and uprooted another 33 million, but also caused $10bn (£8.54bn) in damage. However, Pakistan has contributed little to the climate change that fueled the disaster, as have most developing countries that are also suffering the most severe impacts. “People are losing their homes. People are losing their livelihoods. Coasts are sinking, islands are sinking and ultimately stories are being destroyed,” Vanessa Nakate told Sky News. The analysis of 173 countries by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) found that those most at risk of such losses are the developing countries of Burundi, Somalia and Mozambique, which are some of the lowest emitters in the world, while those facing The lowest risk was developed countries, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Ireland. Image: Pakistani women wade through flood waters as they seek shelter in the Shikarpur district of Sindh province, Pakistan, in September. Photo: AP “Our contribution to climate change is negligible, yet we are hit first and worst by its impacts. And every impact exacerbates existing development challenges,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, head of climate change at Senegal’s environment ministry. For years, richer countries have resisted recognizing the need for reparations. The concerns are “very wrapped up in the precedent it sets in terms of reparations, because slavery is important to the US,” IIED’s Clare Shakya told reporters in October. Concept of “funding” for loss and damage Ms Diouf Sarr said developed nations used to claim that countries could simply adapt to climate damage such as drought, sea level rise, floods and so on. “We are adapting, but we are not well,” added Diouf Sarr, who chairs the negotiating group of 46 least developed countries at COP27 this year. “This can no longer be ignored, and we are increasingly seeing a willingness to address the issue across the board.” It is seen as somewhat of a coup that the concept of “financing” for loss and damage looks likely to make it onto the official agenda at a UN COP conference for the first time. Previously, vague terms like “mechanism” or “facility” were all that made it past the fray to get onto an agenda. Climate damage ‘so intense, so real, for so many countries’ Africa, small island states and vulnerable countries have been pushing the issue for years. The idea of compensation gained significant traction at COP26, in an agreement to create a “dialogue” – hailed as a success but discouraging developing countries that want cash to cope, not a debate. The leaders say they “need more time to talk and see what they can do. But a starving child in Turkana doesn’t have … time for more dialogue,” Vanessa Nakate said. And now climate damage “has become so intense and so real for so many countries that they recognize it’s a big issue and there’s a greater openness” to discussing compensation, Ms. Shakya said. This year, Europe has suffered its worst fires amid a savage drought, with some crops in England expected to fail by up to half after record heat. Around 600 people have died in floods in Nigeria and Hurricane Ian has devastated citrus and melon farming, vegetables and cattle in Florida, costing $1.5bn (£1.3bn). Image: A major drought has fueled record fires in Europe. Photo: SDIS 33 via AP Image: Drought also caused crop failures – wilting of sunflowers in France. Photo: AP In September, Denmark became the first country to pledge adequate compensation for climate damage, pledging 100 million Danish kroner (£11.7 million). The number is not even a drop in the ocean of what is needed, but it breaks a taboo for wealthier countries to even recognize the need for financial compensation. Pakistan, still reeling from the climate meltdown at home, also chairs the powerful 77-nation negotiating group (G77) this year, meaning the bloc is likely to take a stronger position. And developing countries hope that Egypt as the COP host will also help advance the debate. Egypt certainly believes it can. “I think we will be able to offer ways of financing … that should be decided within a very limited time frame,” Ambassador Nasr said. “The whole regime is in question” But the challenge is not only defining loss of funding and damage, but also how. Should it be delivered through the COP process, multilateral development banks or a new initiative and is it financed by taxes, windfalls or in the form of insurance or loans? The cold hard truth is that the slower rich countries reduce their polluting emissions – and they are already far behind – the worse the climate damage will be and the louder the calls for compensation, including from their own citizens, will grow. COP negotiations are based on international cooperation and trust, and countries must bring something to the table if they expect others to. Richer countries have already reneged on their pledge to pump $100 billion a year by 2020 into developing countries to help them cut emissions and adapt to climate change. But money is vital to help grease the wheels of negotiations and encourage or even enable developing countries to take climate action. They are asked to pass on the opportunity of their own industrial revolution because the global north is already contaminated by theirs. This requires money. “Finance has always played the role of building confidence,” Mr. Nasr added. “If we lose in the delivery of finance, then this whole regime will be called into question.”
