With about 86 percent of the vote counted, the bloc of parties loyal to Netanyahu was projected to win 65 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a comfortable majority. The numbers were expected to change as officials had not yet begun counting so-called double-envelope ballots from members of the security forces, prisoners, people with disabilities, diplomats serving abroad and others, but a significant shift in the balance between Netanyahu’s bloc and her opponents were not considered likely. The coalition shaping up to be Israel’s next is made up of Netanyahu’s Likud party, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich, which includes extremist Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit faction. Ben Gvir is seen as the election’s biggest star, having gone from leading a fringe party to becoming a popular leader in a party that represents about 10 percent of Israeli voters. If the results do not change significantly, it will mark a stunning comeback for Netanyahu, who is currently on trial in three corruption cases, and end four years of political stalemate that has dragged the country into a series of elections. But critics warn it could also hand power to ultranationalists like Ben Gvir and his political partner Bezalal Smotrich, who could strip Arab citizens of their rights, condemn the Supreme Court and pass legislation that would eliminate Netanyahu’s legal woes and ratchet. increase social divisions. Get The Times of Israel Daily Edition by email and never miss our top stories By signing up, you agree to the terms The crucial remaining factor was the fate of the leftist Meretz party and the hard-line Arab party Balad, both of which hovered just below the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%. Meretz was projected to receive 3.19% while Balad was at 3.01%, meaning that as it stands, both parties will not be in the next Knesset. The only scenario that could overturn the Netanyahu bloc’s majority is if both Meretz and Ballad end up above the threshold and if the left-wing Labor party – currently at 3.57% – does not fall below it. Channel 12 pollster Mano Gevo said on Wednesday morning that the overall distribution of seats between blocs was unlikely to change significantly, although further changes in party totals were possible. Jewish media reported that Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party is already preparing for a possible transition to power, with Lapid planning to call Netanyahu once the final results are released, which could take several days. Prime Minister and head of the Yesh Atid party Yair Lapid addresses supporters at the campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv early on November 2, 2022, after the end of voting for national elections. (JACK GOOSE / AFP) Faced with possible political oblivion, Meretz MK Mossi Raz told Army Radio on Wednesday morning: “What we are seeing are some results. We remain cautiously optimistic. We will continue to represent our constituents, even if they are out of the coalition or out of the Knesset.” Meanwhile, an unnamed senior Labor politician reportedly lashed out at party leader Merav Mihaeli following Labour’s apparent poor showing. The party member said Labor – the ruling party during Israel’s early decades and a major political force until a few years ago – was saved by party loyalists who voted Labor over Michael, the Ynet news website reported. “We’re waiting for her to draw the obvious conclusions or we’ll send her home,” he said. “It is unbelievable that the Labor Party is struggling to pass the electoral threshold. Merav is a colossal failure and disconnected from reality.” Otzma leader Yehudit Itamar Ben Gvir speaks to supporters at the far-right party’s headquarters after exit poll results were announced, November 1, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) On the other side of the political divide, Ben Gvir told reporters that he would work for all the people of Israel. Ben-Gvir promised to be part of a “totally right-wing” government, but added: “I want to say that I will work for all of Israel, even for those who hate me.” Earlier in the morning, Netanyahu himself told supporters he was “on the brink of a huge victory,” promising a government that would restore pride to Israel and make it strong again. “If the actual results mirror the exit polls, I will create a national government that will take care of all the citizens of Israel,” he told supporters, using a word also used to describe nationalist sentiment. Speaking shortly before Netanyahu, Lapid’s main rival refused to concede defeat, telling party loyalists in Tel Aviv to wait until all the votes were counted and saying his Yesh Atid party had secured record levels of support. “They want politics that is not based on hatred and incitement,” Lapid said of his constituents. Ayelet Shaked, interior minister and head of the Jewish Home party, speaks during a press conference in Ramat Gan, October 25, 2022. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90) One party that fell well below the threshold was Ayelet Shaked’s Jewish Home, which ran on a pro-Netanyahu campaign but faced little support because of anger among its potential voters over Shaked joining the current government that ousted Netanyahu last year after 12 years in power. Jewish Home only got 1.17% of the vote, according to the provisional results, but a Channel 12 News report claimed that Shaked, who is running all the way, had coordinated with Netanyahu in an attempt to increase the overall number. of votes, thereby increasing the number of votes needed to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold and possibly helping to sink some rival parties. On Tuesday night, exit polls from Israel’s major networks gave Netanyahu a clear return to power, with 62 seats between the Likud faction, far-right Religious Zionism and the Haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. At least 61 seats are needed to secure a majority and form a government in the 120-seat Knesset. As pollsters revised their findings and early returns began to come in overnight, the numbers shifted more in Netanyahu’s favor. A Benjamin Netanyahu supporter known as Liran Grey-Shirt celebrates election exit polls at the Likud party headquarters in Jerusalem, November 1, 2022. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov) Israel has been rocked by political turmoil since the Netanyahu government collapsed in late 2018. Two rounds of elections, in April 2019 and September 2019, failed to produce a winner and a short-lived unity government was formed after the third vote. March 2020 collapsed after less than a year. Starting in June 2021, Lapid’s unlikely coalition, which he led with his predecessor as prime minister Naftali Bennett, managed to oust Netanyahu from power after more than a decade, but the alliance, which included the right-wing Yamina and the Islamist Ra’am, struggled to overcome deep ideological divisions and collapsed, in part due to pressure from Netanyahu and his allies. Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
