When he went to a conference in Belfast on Thursday, an academic colleague said “the seer has just arrived”. And his youngest daughter asked him: “If you can see things, how can you not say that you are completely lost?” When he predicted that Johnson would be missing in six months, he encountered a barrage of hostile comments on the Daily Mail website such as “burn him in the fire”. But Tonge, who teaches British politics at the University of Liverpool, is adamant: “One of the commentators said I was a ‘fabricated Nostradamus.’ I’m tempted to put it on my CV on Twitter. “ He is now prepared to risk further ridicule with more political predictions. His predictions are accompanied by many reservations. “There are all kinds of hostages for luck here,” he warns, adding: “I’m John Curtis, a poor man,” referring to the veteran pollster. But Tonge, who has accounts at three betting companies, says he has won more than he has lost in political betting. His winnings include 1. 1,200 in the Northern Ireland election in 2017 and 600 600 in an early bet on Boris Johnson to succeed Theresa May. So the following predictions might be worth a turnaround:
Wakefield ε by-election
“The Labor Party is absolutely certain that it will win because it only needs a swing of 4% from the Conservatives. Labor will win by 8,000 to 10,000 votes. It was a constituency that’s essentially borrowed from the Conservatives because of Brexit. “The only thing that could reduce the size of the majority of Labor is low participation.”
Tiverton and Honiton κ by-elections
“This is more difficult to predict as the Conservatives won 60% of the vote. But it has closed a few times and I would expect the Liberal Democrats to win. It takes a 23% swing for this to happen and in Chesham and Amersham there was a 25% swing. “The musical mood has probably gotten worse since then, so I believe the Lib Dems will win by about 2,000 votes.”
Next leader of the Tories D.
“A few weeks ago I would definitely say Rishi Sunak. And even though his wife’s status did not help, I still believe he is between Sunak and Liz Tras, with Ben Wallace shooting a long shot at 20-1. It will not be Jeremy Hunt. “But it is difficult. Tory leadership competitions can bring significant surprises. “As chancellor, Sunak has to deal with a chaotic economy. And Tras, as Secretary of State, has the horrible poisonous glass of Northern Ireland protocol. “It simply came to our notice then. If they can handle their own media, it’s Prime Minister’s material. If I was pressured, I would say that Trash would take it. “If it reaches the ballot, it is the favorite among the members.”
Next Labor leader 🔮
“There will be no vacancy left. I’m very surprised if Keir Starmer is fined by Durham police. “But if he did give up, I think he would be between Andy Burnham and Lisa Nandy. When he was elected mayor of Manchester, he won in places like Green Cheshire and Hale so he could connect. “For a party committed to equality, it’s absolutely ridiculous to have never found a woman to lead it, and Nadi has a very clear idea of how Labor can win these northern seats again. “Burnham will beat Nadi, but simply. “And Wes Streeting would come some distance back.”
Next chancellor and reshuffle 🔮
“There are four possibilities for the next chancellor. And if I had to rank them it would be: Sajid Javid again. Kwasi Kwarteng; Steve Barclay; Michael Gove. But I would not bet on that. Javid is a man who likes the highest office. Kwarteng is capable and good at communicating. Barclay is safe. I do not know where Gove goes next, he is idiosyncratic and unpredictable. “I do not see any kind of brutal clearance of the cabinet because Johnson is not brutal. People said Priti Patel would be thrilled, but I do not really see that. “Making Sunak foreign minister would be his next sensible job.”
Next general elections 🔮
“It’s almost impossible to predict at this stage. It depends on many things, with the economy above all. I do not think that any party will get the overall majority. “I have the Conservatives in 301 seats. Labor will win around για 50 to put them at 262. The Scottish National Party will drop from 48 to 45. It will be 18 for the Northern Ireland parties. Plaid Cymru will get five seats and Greens one. That puts the Liberal Democrats in 18 seats. I’m a little nervous about this Lib Dem figure, but I will stick to it. There have been so many fake Daws of Lib Dem. “I’m struggling to see how the Conservatives will form a government because they are not friends. So it’s going to be a Starmer-led coalition. “Expect all the things of the ‘coalition of chaos’ to be thrown back to the Labor Party.”
